Analysis of the Current Situation and Prospects of Photovoltaic Industry Development-Anhui Sungeter energy

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Analysis of the Current Situation and Prospects of Photovoltaic Industry Development

Release time：

2022-07-28

　　On September 19th, at the "2023 Photovoltaic New Era Forum" held by the North Star Solar Photovoltaic Network, Liu Yiyang, Deputy Secretary General of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, shared the current status and prospects of China's photovoltaic industry development.

　　Liu Yiyang stated that with more "public" support from regulatory authorities, the overall development of the photovoltaic industry is strong. On the manufacturing side, the production of polycrystalline silicon, silicon wafers, and components increased by over 65% year-on-year in the first half of the year; On the application side, 78.42GW of new grid connected installed capacity was added in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 154%. In the first seven months, the grid connected installed capacity has surged to 97.16GW, exceeding the full year of last year; In terms of imports and exports, the total export value in the first half of the year was about 29 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of about 11.6%. Europe remains the largest component export market, accounting for approximately 57.4% of component exports.

　　Of course, in addition to the four major links of polycrystalline silicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, other industrial chains are also basically independent and controllable. Liu Yiyang pointed out that in 2022, China's inverter enterprises accounted for nearly 70% of the global market share in terms of shipment volume, and the top ten enterprises were domestic manufacturers for 7 years. In addition, the domestic production rate and global market share of pulp, backboard, adhesive film, glass, frames, and brackets have all rapidly increased. At the same time, the market size of specialized equipment in China has reached 65 billion yuan, with a global market share of over 90%.

　　"The greater the responsibility, the greater the pressure." Liu Yiyang emphasized that as one of the few strategic emerging industries that can achieve end-to-end independent control, the photovoltaic industry is also facing many challenges, especially with the rapid deployment of large-scale production capacity, the risks of industry ups and downs increase. However, we still need to maintain a development perspective on the issue.

　　From a macro perspective, the frequent occurrence of extreme weather worldwide has made the development of renewable energy a global consensus, and photovoltaic power generation will be an important means to address the current and future energy crisis. In the domestic market, under the "dual carbon" goal, energy transformation has entered a new stage of development, and energy consumption dual control is gradually shifting towards carbon emission dual control.

　　To this end, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association has raised its expected installed capacity for 2023, and the newly added grid connected installed capacity in China has been increased from 95-120GW to 120-140GW. However, due to uncertain factors such as consumption, market-oriented electricity trading, and progress in source network construction, the future market will be even more difficult to predict.

　　Liu Yiyang introduced three major directions for the future development of the photovoltaic industry. Firstly, promote the high-end development of the industry through technological innovation, and accelerate the pace of industrialization of new batteries; The second is to create green and low-carbon photovoltaic products, further promote the intelligent, green, and high-end transformation of the photovoltaic industry, utilize the advantages of new energy in various regions, create green and low-carbon photovoltaic products, and vigorously promote the green and sustainable development of the industry; The third is to promote the deep integration of photovoltaics with other industries, and widely apply photovoltaics in multiple fields such as construction, transportation, agriculture, animal husbandry, and desert management, achieving the development of diversified application scenarios.

　　In addition, Liu Yiyang reminds industry enterprises to pay close attention to overseas industrial chains, but still maintain a certain degree of openness. Despite the rapid progress in overseas production capacity construction, the scale advantage of China's industrial chain is difficult to shake in the short term. The IEA predicts that by 2024, various links in China's photovoltaic industry chain will continue to dominate the global production capacity increment and stock, and even account for a further increase in proportion; But by 2027, the silicon wafer production capacity of countries such as India, the United States, and ASEAN will increase nearly fivefold, and the production capacity of polycrystalline silicon and solar cells may double. The proportion of China's production capacity may decrease from 80-95% in 2021 to 75-90% in 2027, and the proportion of production may decrease from 75-90% in 2021 to 60-75% in 2027.

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