Global photovoltaic installed capacity may reach 400GW in 2023-Anhui Sungeter energy

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Global photovoltaic installed capacity may reach 400GW in 2023

Release time：

2022-01-10

　　"Overall, the global photovoltaic installed DC value is expected to reach around 400GW in 2023," said Hu Dan, Chief Analyst at S&PGglobal. At the "2023 Photovoltaic New Era Forum" held by North Star Solar Photovoltaic Network in Wuxi, Jiangsu from September 19th to 20th, Hu Dan delivered a brilliant speech on "Global Photovoltaic Demand Pattern and Main Market Dynamics". Hu Dan.jpg

　　Hu Dan introduced that through Q3 installation data statistics and trend analysis, S&PGglobal has increased China's photovoltaic installation to 170GW this year. Overall, the global photovoltaic installation DC value is expected to reach around 400GW in 2023, and the growth rate has also reached a new high in nearly a decade.

　　According to Hu Dan's analysis, there will be three major demand overlaps in 2023. One is ground power stations. In 2023, with the easing of the epidemic and the return of rational prices in the industrial chain, the demand for large ground power stations will recover; The second is the rapid increase in demand for distributed photovoltaics, including the sensitivity of European and American markets to electricity price fluctuations leading to distributed demand, and the sustained growth of the Chinese household photovoltaic market; The third is that green hydrogen brings new installed capacity demand. Currently, mainstream economies are beginning to enter the era of green hydrogen, including the combination of green hydrogen for ammonia production and other forms. Green hydrogen is also a significant increase in future demand for photovoltaics.

　　Specifically, the demand for major global photovoltaic markets is as follows:

　　Chinese market

　　In the past decade, the Chinese photovoltaic market has gone from scratch during the 12th Five Year Plan period to gradually expanding during the 13th Five Year Plan period.

　　Among them, the household market was mainly concentrated in Shandong, Hebei, and Henan provinces from 2019 to 2022, with an installed capacity accounting for over 70%, belonging to the first tier market. Anhui, Jiangsu, Shandong, and other central and southern provinces, as well as southern and northern provinces, belong to the second tier market for household use. In the first half of 2023, the household use echelon was adjusted, and Shandong was replaced by Henan as the largest household use market. Hebei's ranking declined significantly, and the second tier household use market began to rise rapidly. The first tier market is mainly affected by the rapid increase in installed capacity in the early stage and the limitation of transformer capacity, which will affect demand. The second tier market is gradually becoming the focus of market competition. Throughout this year, the installed capacity in the household market is expected to reach 40GW.

　　Since 2021, with the adjustment of electricity prices and the dual control of energy consumption, industrial and commercial distribution has begun to enter the fast lane, mainly concentrated in economically developed areas such as Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, Guangdong, etc. In 2023, with the decrease in system prices, the economic efficiency of industry and commerce has significantly improved, and development has become more rapid.

　　Ground power stations will see a recovery in demand in 2023, with core demand mainly coming from the first batch of large bases. Last year's grid connection was not as expected, and most projects will be gradually installed and connected to the grid this year.

　　Overall, the demand for China's photovoltaic market will increase to 170GW in 2023, of which approximately 88GW will be distributed.

　　European market

　　Since the outbreak of the Russo Ukrainian War, the European photovoltaic market has grown rapidly, especially with fluctuations in electricity prices leading to adjustments in demand patterns. In some countries, electricity prices have skyrocketed tenfold, resulting in a demand for distributed photovoltaics and household storage. This year, the European market will continue to increase its installed capacity by over 70GW.

　　US market

　　Guided by policies, the reserve of ground power station projects in the US market has been rapidly released. From the installed capacity of the past two years, it can be seen that the US market has been significantly affected by component imports. Since March 2022, due to the anti circumvention investigation of Southeast Asian production capacity, the US market has seen a significant decrease in component imports since the second quarter of last year, which has limited the installation speed of the terminal market. To this end, the United States has been gradually planning for localization of production capacity, while giving Southeast Asian production capacity a tax exemption period of 24 months. How much localized production capacity can be released in 2024 depends on the stimulation of IRA's localized production capacity subsidies, which will determine the direction of the relationship between the US market and Southeast Asian production capacity.

　　Latin American market

　　The demand pattern in the Latin American market largely depends on ground power plants, but in recent years, Brazil's rooftop distributed development has been very rapid, so Brazil occupies a core position in the Latin American market, accounting for more than half of the installed capacity. After 2024, the Pakistani market is facing policy adjustments, and its distributed market may be affected, but it will bring future development momentum to the region in terms of overall ground power plants and green hydrogen.

SUNGETER