2023 is a year of both opportunities and challenges for most industries, and the same applies to the photovoltaic industry.

　　Since the beginning of this year, the scale of the photovoltaic market has continued to expand, and the production of the main links in the industrial chain has shown a high-speed growth trend. At the same time, it is also facing many challenges such as land tightening, overcapacity, and low-priced bidding. To better explore the development situation, direction, and path of the photovoltaic market under the new situation, North Star Solar Photovoltaic Network will take stock of several trend changes in the photovoltaic market in 2023, providing reference for practitioners.

　　1、 Land tightening

　　With the rapid growth of photovoltaic installed capacity, the demand for land has also increased. Due to the replacement of old and new policies, there is an unclear definition of the nature of land used for existing photovoltaic projects, resulting in land being a scarce resource and further exacerbating land use conflicts.

　　In March of this year, the three ministries jointly issued a notice on supporting the development of the photovoltaic power generation industry and regulating land management, marking the end of the long-standing land chaos in the photovoltaic industry. This document implements classified management of land for photovoltaic power generation projects, clarifies the scope of land management for photovoltaic arrays and supporting facilities, and proposes requirements for strengthening land supervision and prudently handling historical legacy issues.

　　At the local level, more than 10 provinces including Jiangsu, Chongqing, Shaanxi, and Guangxi have also successively issued or adjusted notices on land management for photovoltaic projects, and strictly investigated illegal and irregular behaviors such as occupying permanent basic farmland, constructing photovoltaic arrays for photovoltaic power generation projects, occupying farmland, and changing purposes in violation of regulations.

　　Many new, under construction, or existing projects have been demolished due to adjustments in water conservancy and land use policies, such as the Ju'an Photovoltaic Project in Jiaogang Lake, Yingshang County, which was demolished due to encroachment on lakes, the illegal occupation and demolition of a photovoltaic project by a certain enterprise in Lingao, Hainan, and the occupation and demolition of farmland by the 50 MW agricultural photovoltaic complementary photovoltaic project in Jingxian County.

　　2、 Overcapacity

　　In the past two years, with the intensive expansion of silicon wafers, batteries, and modules by enterprises, the photovoltaic industry has experienced cyclical fluctuations and supply chain stage mismatch.

　　According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in the first half of 2023, the production of polycrystalline silicon, silicon wafers, batteries, and components in China reached a new high, with production exceeding 606000 tons, 253.4GW, 224.5GW, and 204GW respectively, with year-on-year growth exceeding 65%. The risk of market surplus is gradually increasing.

　　This has attracted high attention from many industry professionals, especially the view of "overcapacity in photovoltaic production" in the second half of the year. However, most industry insiders have expressed that in the long run, the issue of "excess" still needs to be viewed dialectically. Periodic fluctuations are a normal attribute of the industry, and appropriate oversupply is conducive to survival of the fittest. Efficient and high-quality production capacity is not excessive

　　In late November, the fourth manufacturing enterprise symposium held by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also made a judgment on the current situation of the photovoltaic industry: "There is indeed a certain stage and structural excess risk in China's photovoltaic industry, but overall it belongs to the normal range of industry development."

　　3、 Falling endlessly

　　The overcapacity of the entire photovoltaic industry chain has also led to a downward trend in prices at all upstream and downstream links.

　　Since the beginning of this year, the price of silicon materials has rapidly declined, and the once dominant silicon material companies have gone through a period of "ice and fire" in just a few months. Data shows that compared to last year's high of 300000 yuan/ton, silicon materials have now fallen by 70%.

　　The sharp drop in silicon material prices has driven down the prices of the entire industry chain. In the silicon wafer process, M10 silicon wafers decreased from 6.7 yuan/wafer at the end of last year to 2.3 yuan/wafer, and G12 silicon wafers decreased from 6.7 yuan/wafer to 3.3 yuan/wafer, with a decline of over 50%; In the battery cell process, batteries that used to cost over 1 yuan per watt have now dropped to around 0.5 yuan; The component prices have continued to decline, with the average prices of 182 and 210 double-sided double glass PERC components dropping from 1.915 yuan/W at the end of last year to the current 1.03 yuan/W and 1.07 yuan/W, respectively, a decrease of over 40%.

　　On the application side, the overall component quotation has been on a downward trend since the beginning of the year. In October of this year, in the third batch of photovoltaic module procurement by Huadian Group in 2023, some companies even reported the lowest price of 0.993 yuan/watt, refreshing the industry's understanding of low prices. Subsequently, in the centralized procurement of photovoltaic project components by National Energy Group and Three Gorges Group, there were bids with prices falling below 1 yuan/W, which seems to indicate that the bidding price of photovoltaic modules has exceeded the 1 yuan threshold.

　　Many industry insiders point out that quotes below 1 yuan/watt are the result of intensified industry competition. The component price of 1 yuan/watt has completely fallen below the cost price, and this vicious price war has not only caused internal damage to enterprises, but also affected the development of the entire Chinese photovoltaic industry. However, some industry insiders have also expressed that although the price reduction may seem like a low point in the industry on the surface, after enduring this period, excellent enterprises will stand out or become even stronger, promoting the high-quality development of the entire industry.

　　4、 Industrial supporting facilities

　　In the past two years, although the national and local levels have issued multiple documents clearly requiring all regions not to use "supporting industries" and "introduction of investment" as restrictive conditions for the development of new energy projects such as photovoltaics, various forms of industrial support are still emerging and diverse.

　　Since the beginning of this year, the issue of industrial supporting facilities has become a hot topic in the industry several times. For example, in the investment promotion of a distributed photovoltaic development project released in a certain county in Yunnan, it is required that investors must provide assistance and drive for the local rural revitalization and village collective economy; In the investment promotion of 100MW installed photovoltaic power generation in a certain county of Sichuan, it is required that enterprises need to invest in and construct a rural revitalization project or hotel project in the local area while investing in photovoltaic projects; In the bid for a 4200 acre complementary fishing and lighting project in Jiangsu province, a foreign investment support requirement of 60 million US dollars was even proposed, and strict additional conditions such as registering and establishing foreign-invested enterprises in the local area were required... The soaring non-technical costs have made the development enterprises suffer unbearably.

　　In order to further rectify this chaos, in October this year, the National Energy Administration issued a special rectification plan for improper market intervention in the development of new energy and pumped storage, which aimed to rectify, verify, and supervise the industrial support and restricted additional benefits in the development of new energy projects. A special column was set up on the portal website to collect case studies and problem clues.

　　Subsequently, provinces such as Guizhou, Xinjiang, Ningxia, Shanghai, and Anhui began to implement and issue relevant rectification work plans. During the continuous correction process, the supporting situation of the new energy industry in some cities has shown significant improvement.

　　5、 Comprehensive distribution and storage

　　Since 2017, many regions have made supporting energy storage a prerequisite for new energy projects. However, previously it was mostly limited to large-scale wind and solar projects. Now, with the rapid development of distributed photovoltaics bringing enormous pressure to consumption and grid operation, the same distribution and storage requirements are occurring in distributed photovoltaics such as industrial, commercial, and household photovoltaics.

　　In 2023, the number of regions that have issued mandatory distribution and storage for consumption policies has significantly increased. Henan, Hebei, and Hunan have successively issued policies for soliciting opinions or trial implementation, planning to carry out distributed photovoltaic configuration and energy storage throughout the province.

　　From the published policy documents, it can be seen that there are mainly two aspects of local demand for distributed configuration energy storage. On the one hand, it is to promote the development of new energy storage industries in the local area. For example, Jindong District of Jinhua City not only requires the construction of energy storage facilities, but also provides policy support such as demand response subsidies and project construction subsidies for energy storage power stations, aiming to promote the scale growth of new energy storage power stations in the local area. On the other hand, Shandong, Henan and other regions hope to ensure the smooth integration and consumption of distributed photovoltaics by installing energy storage devices, in order to achieve sustainable energy development.

　　There are also reports that the era of comprehensive distribution and storage of distributed photovoltaics is approaching, and relevant policies may already be in the process of being formulated. (Details can be clicked on: Distributed photovoltaic comprehensive distribution and storage, already on the way!)

　　6、 Center of gravity southward shift

　　In 2023, the landscape of the distributed photovoltaic industry is undergoing a dramatic change. Hebei, Henan, and Shandong have always been the main battlefields for the development of distributed photovoltaics. However, now, the territory of Jianghu is shifting to southeastern regions such as Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Anhui.

　　According to data previously released by the National Energy Administration, three out of the top five provinces in terms of new installed capacity of distributed photovoltaics in the first three quarters were from the south, namely Jiangsu with 8.38GW, Anhui with 6.62GW, and Zhejiang with 5.3GW. Among them, Jiangsu's new installed capacity has surpassed the traditional province of Shandong, becoming the second largest province in terms of distributed photovoltaics installed capacity in the first three quarters of the country.

　　This change in the market comes from multiple aspects. Previously, in the article "Distributed Photovoltaics" Moving South "by the North Star Solar Photovoltaic Network, it was mentioned that the rapid increase in distributed penetration rates in these provinces is due to the outbreak of industrial and commercial distribution, the gradual increase in energy consumption dual control policies, the rise in electricity prices for industrial and commercial transactions, subsidies, and favorable policies.

　　However, some experts also point out that although the market's focus is shifting towards the south, penetration rate should not be the sole criterion for measuring the development prospects of household use. Undeveloped or just starting provinces do not necessarily mean huge installed capacity, but also need to consider factors such as local power grid strength and load absorption.

　　Therefore, for the distributed photovoltaic industry to succeed in the new landscape, it is necessary to closely monitor market changes and flexibly respond to various challenges.

　　7、 Unified size

　　With the continuous progress of photovoltaic technology, the changes in the size of silicon wafers and module products are overwhelming. From the initial 125mm × Starting from 125mm and undergoing multiple iterations, including 156mm × 156mm, 156.75mm × 156.75mm, 158.75mm × 158.75mm, 166mm × 166mm, 210mm × 210mm and 182mm × The growth of silicon wafers in sizes of 182mm is dazzling. (For details, you can click on: What are the dimensions of photovoltaic modules for "stir frying"?)

　　However, this diversified product specification undoubtedly brings troubles to end users, increases production costs, and causes great distress for many industry professionals. Therefore, in recent years, leading companies in the industry have begun to break away from the conventional thinking of square silicon wafers and have launched rectangular silicon wafer technology solutions. Rectangular silicon wafers have become an important path for reducing costs and increasing efficiency in the photovoltaic industry, and have also sparked a strong call for unified rectangular silicon wafer size and component size standards.

　　On July 7th this year, after thorough and in-depth communication among 9 component companies (arranged in alphabetical order according to the pinyin of their company names), including Atlas, Dongfang Risheng, JA, Jinko, Longi, Tianhe, Tongwei, Yidao, and Chint, a consensus was reached on the standardized dimensions of the new generation rectangular silicon wafer's pattern components: 2382: * 1134. But this is just one component version.

　　Furthermore, on August 18th, six photovoltaic companies, including Artes, Dongfang Risheng, Longi, Tongwei, Yidao, and Chint New Energy, reached the following consensus on the standardized size of 191.Xmm rectangular silicon wafers used in the 72 version: 182.2mm * 191.6mm.

　　However, looking at the current situation, there is still debate about standardizing the dimensions of rectangular silicon wafers or components outside of the mid size range.

　　8、 Power virtual scale

　　In the third quarter of this year, a set of data sparked heated discussions in the industry! The power calibration data of photovoltaic modules by different third-party institutions are not uniform and vary greatly. For a set of 72 version double glass modules, the difference between the calibration power of a third-party institution and the reference value can even be as high as 14W.

　　The phenomenon of "false labeling" has a long history. Since the large-scale development of the domestic photovoltaic industry in 2012 and 2013, the phenomenon of "false labeling" has always existed. Especially in recent years, with the significant increase in photovoltaic installed capacity and the rapid growth of market size, many component manufacturers and even some large factories have resorted to brainwashing and changing their numbers if their technical strength does not meet the standards, in order to demonstrate the "leading" of their products and win customer orders. In the long run, this will seriously affect the sustainable and healthy development of China's photovoltaic industry.

　　This chaos has also attracted the attention of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and relevant departments. On November 23, under the guidance of the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association conducted in-depth industry self-discipline work, formulated the "Integrity Calibration and Traceability Self discipline Convention for Photovoltaic Module Power Specifications", and organized relevant enterprises and institutions in the photovoltaic field to officially release it on November 21.

　　According to public information from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, as of now, more than 40 photovoltaic enterprises and institutions have signed the Self Discipline Convention, covering nearly 70% of the domestic production capacity of module enterprises, including domestic backbone photovoltaic module enterprises, third-party testing institutions, certification and measurement institutions, and other links.