Looking back at 2023, the term "overcapacity" seems to have been lingering in the minds of photovoltaic practitioners, especially after entering the second half of the year, China's photovoltaic manufacturing industry has continued to operate at a high level. With the release of production capacity in various links of the industrial chain and continuous growth in output, the rate of price decline of photovoltaic products has significantly accelerated.

　　According to statistics from the North Star Solar Photovoltaic Network, since 2023, China's TOPCon production capacity alone has reached 433GW, including 327.5GW of TOPCon batteries and 105.5GW of TOPCon modules. Combined with HJT, perovskite, and the existing P-type battery module scale that needs to be cleared, it is obvious that it has exceeded the downstream installed capacity for digestion.

　　The supply-demand contradiction in the industrial chain has indirectly exacerbated the fluctuation of photovoltaic prices and the survival environment of small and medium-sized photovoltaic enterprises. In terms of price, the tracking information of the North Star solar photovoltaic network shows that from the beginning of 2023 to the present, the domestic prices of silicon materials, silicon wafers, batteries, and modules have decreased by 66%, 34% -46%, 46% -52%, and 35% -46%, respectively. On the enterprise side, news of project reduction, shutdown, temporary suspension of production, and layoffs continue to spread.

　　Therefore, when can the problem of "overcapacity" be alleviated? When will the industry chain prices return to a reasonable range? Becoming a key topic of concern in the industry. Recently, at the China Zhejiang (Ninghai) Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Industry Development Seminar held in Ninghai County, Zhejiang Province, multiple industry experts and enterprise representatives expressed their views on the above-mentioned issues.

　　In the opinion of Lv Jinbiao, Deputy Director of the Expert Committee of the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, "Overall, the price fluctuations in the photovoltaic industry have been significant, but the good thing is that they have been fluctuating downwards, which is conducive to the expansion of the photovoltaic market."

　　Lv Jinbiao believes that currently, after two or three years of development, the industry's production capacity has indeed reached a high point, but the issue of capacity expansion should be viewed in two. On the one hand, the chain of the photovoltaic industry chain is relatively long, so the front-end needs to be "appropriately advanced". Taking the silicon material end as an example, from 2021 to 2022, polycrystalline silicon is in short supply, and the mismatch between upstream production and market demand has led to an increase in photovoltaic prices, hindering the development of the photovoltaic industry. On the other hand, in recent years, many photovoltaic companies have launched large-scale expansion plans for financing purposes, but the actual production capacity is still rational, and overall, industrial development is still in a benign stage.

　　Shen Wenzhong, Director of the Institute of Solar Energy at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, also said, "Overcapacity is an inevitable product of a free market economy. The photovoltaic industry goes through a cycle every five years, so there is no need to panic. In the next year or so, it can return to a prosperous situation."

　　As a representative enterprise in the flood of the photovoltaic market, Dongfang Risheng also deeply feels it. Zhuang Yinghong, Global Marketing Director of Dongfang Risheng New Energy Co., Ltd., bluntly stated, "The secondary market does indeed feel the so-called overcapacity, but the theory of overcapacity in the photovoltaic industry has existed for more than a decade since 2008. However, it is necessary to delve deeper into where overcapacity lies." In Zhuang Yinghong's view, any problem needs to be viewed from different perspectives, and the issue of overcapacity in photovoltaic modules is no exception, Excellent production capacity will never be surplus.

　　As Zhuang Yinghong said, if you look at the industry news of the past decade, there has been a lot of discussion about overcapacity in the photovoltaic industry chain. However, observing the development trend of the photovoltaic industry, the real progress of China's photovoltaic industry is the continuous decline in prices, continuous progress in technology, and continuous improvement in battery efficiency. Therefore, despite experiencing periodic fluctuations, the core competitiveness of China's photovoltaic industry is thriving.

　　The photovoltaic foreign trade data released by the China Chamber of Electrical and Mechanical Commerce in September this year also confirms this point. In the first half of 2023, China's export volume of battery products reached 2.4 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 44.1%, with an export volume of 19.1GW, a year-on-year increase of 83.1%; The export value of photovoltaic modules reached 23.37 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%; The export volume was 108.1GW, a year-on-year increase of 37.5%; The export value of inverters was 6.16 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 95.1%. As a new business card for China's overseas expansion, despite the increasingly complex overseas market environment, China's photovoltaic exports still maintain a good growth trend.

　　When can the problem of overcapacity be alleviated? Zhong Caifu, Deputy Researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that it is indeed difficult for the photovoltaic industry to avoid the pain of overcapacity and significant price fluctuations in the short term. However, from the perspective of the global market in the medium to long term, both the China US Sunshine Hometown Declaration and the COP28 Conference have proposed a new goal of "triple the global installed capacity of renewable energy by 2030". Due to the high investment threshold for wind power, it is more difficult to achieve triple installed capacity growth, and the threshold for anti photovoltaic power generation is relatively low, resulting in greater market demand in the future.

　　"If we reach the goal of tripling the installed capacity of new energy by the 15th Five Year Plan, matching with existing production capacity, the excess may not be as severe, or overall, production capacity is matched with the future, but it will be more difficult in the near future," said Zhong Caifu.